sábado, 22 de outubro de 2011

EURO, AID TO GREECE AND THE GERMAN PROJECT


More than a national symbol, the currency and its control by public policy makers determine the remuneration of financial capital, enable the management of strategic projects by the State and provide resources for the day by day administration of the country, as well as configure the profile of distribution of income between social groups and also the gains from trade between countries.

As the penalty in football – that by the importance had to be taken by the club president, as someone already told - the management of monetary policy must remain in the custody of the highest public administration level of the country. There is no sense in its submission to the irrationality of the market , because it does not apply to currency the naïve political ideology of win-win, as evidenced by the current economic crisis.

The Euro and the delimitation of European Economic Space

The European Union (EU) only made ​​feasible itself not by the threat of "godless communism of the soviet  totalitarian state". Nor either the reason for the creation of the European Economic Community EEC was the military power of the USSR, against it NATO was created.

If so, when Russia lost one-third of its population as well as one-third of its territory in the USSR collapse, the EEC would also have collapsed due to end of this pseudo leitmotif of European integration. No, despite the collapse of the USSR, the EEC integration deepened and became the European Union EU.

The real reason for the creation of the EEC is that the great opponent of the European countries was and is  the USA, as already defined by Charles De Gaulle in 1966,  as  detailed by Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber in his bestseller "American Challenge” (1965) and by Chalmers Johnson (2007) (2002).

European sovereignty and US military domination

With  400.000  americans  soldiers, hundreds of military bases  located in Germany, Spain, France, England, Italy, Portugal, barriers missiles and  atomic power, get rid of US domination is the almost impossible goal  to be achieved by Europe joined in the European Union (EU).

Just now politically and militarily dominated, 66 years after the end of Second  World War, Germany knows that could regain sovereignty over  its own territory only if  joined to other european countries, in one unconfessable strategy  of thirty to fifty years in the future. The leaders of other European countries know it.

So the Euro is less the unification of monetary policies in European countries, in itself, painful cost to be paid in terms of national sovereignty to any of the countries of EU.

Euro represents the first step in the resumption of german and european sovereignty in the face of territorial and market north american occupation.

That is the great reason for the United Kingdom have not joined the Euro area. UK stand allied to US policy in Europe and only so it could to face the economic and financial hegemony of Germany. 

The British strategy to revive the financial center of London, the City, can only succeed if UK establish a partnership with the US.  Joining the Euro would be to abandon this strategy, occupy a secondary position in Europe and there lose the ally condition of  US interests.

Euro emerges as a symbol of effective delimitation of economic space; it express the pursuit of strategic control of the European market and represents  change in the subordination agreement in relations with the US.

Undermine the dollar and the North American economic power in Europe, limiting the dollar use  in the negotiations between European countries and in a second time, to impose the Euro to the world, taking up dollar space, this is the major objective of the EU.

This would keep and ensure european market to european companies  and countries, and after conquer the dollar market to european corporations and its products.

The dollar in the oil trade and the Iraq War

Remembering, the Iraq war may be acknowledged as a defining moment of the permanence of the dollar in the oil market, because Saddam Hussein had imposed negotiations only in Euro for Iraqi oil. The bad example was destroyed. This can not be forgotten.

Beyond the Iraq War, the US struggle for maintaining the dollar as an international currency continued in the form of economic and military blackmail.

Atomic blackmail to maintain the dollar as an international currency

On the one hand, the visits of Hillary Clynton as Secretary of State, to China, Japan and Germany, early in the Obama administration, were intended to ensure the continued presence of the governments of these three countries in international financial markets, enabling the placement of US government securities and the consequent  financing US government spending. With Germany and Japan, this partnership dates from 70’s years, with China, from 90’s.

On the other hand, the nuclear agreement between the U.S. and India in 2010, has operated as a military blackmail against China and against its proposal to stablish a new international currency: a threat of clogging India with atomic weapons in case of disruption of agreement to support the dollar and the North American debt by China.

The BRICs and Chinese movement  to favor a new international currency is a contrary message to US interest and to the continuity of the Sino-US monetary-fiscal partnership. And, together the weakness of the north american economy, lead the US to a quick adjustment which the public obvious signs has been (a) the discontinuity of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars; (b) the failed attempt to revitalize the fiscal policy by Obama, through taxation of the millionaires and by the reducing the tax benefits to large corporations; and (3) the injection of funds into the economy by buying government securities in the financial and international market, the quantitative easing QE1 and QE2.

German and french hesitation, fear of inflation and its electoral impact open space for intensive performance of the IMF in Europe

In October/2011, Germany and France still hesitate to support Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, through the release of funds emissions-backed currency  by European Central Bank.

Issue of money to save the Euro is compatible with the German strategic long term plan.  But it terrifies economists, monetary authorities and German voters who glimpse on the horizon the shadow of hyperinflation that ravaged Germany in the 20´s of last century.

Angela Merkel's mission is to convince german voters  even though she can not say with all the words the long-term strategic plan of the country must be continued, which has already achieved some success in the first stage, the unification of the two Germanys.

The possible strategy for Germany

For the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel  remains to strengthen the EU and the Euro to position it as international trade currency and to ensure the European market for German business and European:

a)     supporting the North American short-term measures in the appreciation of the yuan, as it represents a loss of competitiveness of Chinese products in Europe and other countries;

b)  rejecting the advances of China and  other  BRICs to establish a new international currency other than dollar, while Europe is weakened and China is strengthened;

c)     supporting plans for regulation and recovery of the European financial system;

d)     supporting  the stabilization of the economies of European nations;

e)     negotiating trade agreements with other areas of trading nations, such as Mercosur, and country-to-country, to ensure  opportunities for trade for European products;

f)       boycotting the resurgence of London City as a world financial center;

g)    supporting the proporsal that the resources of the BRICs are intended for direct purchase of greek, spanish, portuguese and Italian debt securities, so that  the targeting of resources and monitoring  of economy, of fiscal policy and monetary policy of the european countries in trouble remains the responsibility on behalf of European Central Bank and IMF did not.

The german battle against inflation in the short term is incompatible with the german plan for long term of regaining territorial and market sovereignty

Considered the german long-term strategy, the most important mission of Angela Merkel is less the control of currency issue by the European Central Bank and the possible inflationary process, but is much more the rapid support to Greece and the uplift of the economy of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.

Immediate interests and electoral may already be clouding the German long-term project. But,  as Helmut Kohl passed into ​​history  by the union of the two Germanys, celebrated in 10.03.1990 –  Angela Merkel would also passe as the chancellor who prevented the EU collapse supporting the stabilization of Euro. She would may be recognized for having sustained the basis for European independence in relation to the US monetary policy, for European isolation to the dollar decay, as well as for distant  sovereignty and territorial market recovery by Germany and  Europe.